From an economist's perspective, the Fear & Greed Index being in the high 70s signals a period of heightened market sentiment, where emotions tend to outweigh rational decision-making. When the index is this high, it often indicates that the market is in a phase of speculative excess, where prices may be inflated beyond their intrinsic value, driven by optimism, FOMO (fear of missing out), and short-term trading.
Historically, such euphoric periods are followed by corrections, often triggered by sudden shifts in investor sentiment or unforeseen market events. This is where the phenomenon of "fake breakouts" and meme coin mania becomes more pronounced, as the market swings between extreme optimism and sharp sell-offs. It's important to recognize that this type of market behavior typically does not reflect the long-term fundamentals of the assets in question, making it more susceptible to volatility.
In terms of strategy, it’s prudent to balance short-term gains with long-term security. Taking profits on short-term plays, as you've done, is a reasonable risk management approach. By locking in gains during periods of heightened euphoria, you’re mitigating the potential for losses should a correction occur. On the other hand, holding core long-term investments provides a stable base for your portfolio, as these assets are likely to weather short-term volatility better, especially if they have strong fundamentals.
Hedging early, as you’ve considered, can also be an effective strategy during periods of extreme market sentiment. This can include diversifying into assets that are less correlated with the current market hype or employing derivatives like options or futures to manage downside risk. Ultimately, whether to ride the wave or hedge early depends on individual risk tolerance and investment goals. However, history shows that excessive greed often leads to market corrections, so a cautious approach — especially in speculative markets like crypto — is generally advisable to avoid being caught in the subsequent downturn.